A trend's end: Navigating the rise and fall of trends

The brand world thrives on the "next big thing". Countless resources are dedicated to trendspotting, analysing tipping points and dissecting product adoption curves. But understanding the demise of a trend is just as crucial as predicting its rise. When does a trend transition from ubiquitous to overdone, and finally, to simply done? How can brands proactively manage this decline and avoid becoming casualties of shifting consumer interests?

This is just as important – although arguably less glamorous – and part of proactive brand management. When is it time to cut your losses, adjust your portfolio and move onto the next thing? And why is it so hard to see it coming?

Brands care about trends because they are a key element in the drive for differentiation. Managing a brand is like standing on the down escalator. If you stand still, you’re actually moving down. Competitors launch similar products, your prices are slashed by third parties, own brands mimic your style. Brands are constantly fighting to remain special, different – and therefore valuable – in the minds of consumers. Being first to a new trend is one way to do this.

The lifecycle of a trend: From Genesis to Indifference

Trends, like products, follow a lifecycle with three phases: Genesis, the Muddled Middle, and the Zone of Indifference. Each phase presents unique challenges and opportunities for brands seeking to differentiate through trends.

Genesis: The birth of an idea

Trends in the Genesis phase can be sparked by factors such as shifts in consumer desires, advancing technology or changing values. These trends represent opportunities for brands, but they need to be selective about which apply to their brand strategy, category and business offer.

• Identity-driven trends, often seen in fashion, capitalise on consumers' desires to align themselves with specific aesthetics, subcultures or social movements. Fashion houses like Chanel and Dior skilfully navigate this landscape by balancing timeless master brand identities with on-trend collections and collaborations.
• Innovation-driven trends centre around advances that enhance product delivery, functionality or convenience. Incremental innovations – such as new flavours, ingredients or improved user experiences –are rapidly adopted. Spirits brands have quickly infused natural trend botanicals into their ranges, transformative technologies, like the internet or smartphones, affect all categories.
• Values-driven trends emerge from shifts in societal values and priorities. The rise of environmental concerns, for example, has driven brands to incorporate sustainable practices and socially responsible initiatives, and seen the rise of ‘purpose’ as a brand driver.

The Muddled Middle: From niche to mainstream

As a trend gains momentum, it enters the Muddled Middle, where it transitions from a niche interest to a mainstream concern. Brands can no longer ignore the trend, as it becomes a key factor in consumer decision-making. This phase is characterised by increased competition, fragmentation of the original idea and intense experimentation as practical applications are formulated, trialled and reworked. The energy transition is currently in this phase, with multiple ideas, offers and options being tested both by established energy brands, and new solution brands like wind turbine developer Vestas.

This phase presents four significant challenges for brands:

1. Pioneering brands risk being overtaken. Early adopters may find their innovations copied and improved upon by competitors learning from their mistakes. The Body Shop, once a pioneer in ethical and sustainable beauty, faced this challenge as larger corporations adopted similar practices.
2. Too many versions leads to dilution. As more brands jump on the bandwagon, the original idea becomes fragmented, with each brand offering its own interpretation. This can create confusion for consumers and make it difficult for brands to stand out. Consider the proliferation of "natural" or "organic" product claims – the volume and claims-confusion around the options can leave people feeling overwhelmed and rejecting the whole offer.
3. Authenticity is paramount. Brands must find their own unique and genuine way to engage with the trend, avoiding generic and low-value "me-too" offerings. It’s vital that brands find their own space and strongly claim ground that they can own.
4. Practicality is required: As trends move through this phase, brands need to start offering practical solutions and honing realistic offers. It’s often at this stage that countertrends emerge, as resistance to anticipated change mounts.

The Zone of Indifference: The moment of truth

Once a trend reaches widespread adoption, it enters the Zone of Indifference, where it faces a moment of truth. Here, trends can follow one of four paths:

1. Hygiene: The trend becomes a standard category expectation. Every brand has adopted its own version and the trend ceases to be a source of differentiation. New flavour variants, mobile phone coverage, online shopping – once original features become widely absorbed into expected category offers.
2. Niche: The trend remains relevant to a specific consumer segment but fails to achieve mass appeal. This could be due to price barriers, lifestyle incompatibility or limited applicability. Electric vehicles, for example, face this hurdle. While the concept is widely accepted, high costs and infrastructure limitations are hindering mainstream adoption and sales have plateaued recently.
3. Inauthenticity: Brands superficially adopt the trend but without genuine commitment. This inauthenticity is a symptom of misaligned trends, businesses and consumers. If consumers are not willing to support a trend financially, then it becomes difficult for the business to adopt it. This has been the issue with many brands' adoption of sustainability statements, leading to accusations of "greenwashing" or virtue signalling. This disconnect between words and actions breeds cynicism and damages brand credibility. Better to not be part of a trend, than say one thing and do another.
4. Trend’s End: The final option is that the trend dies out. This happens when the idea gets stretched out of shape, as it is applied in circumstances which don’t fit the original concept; or that the problem the trend was addressing ceases to be an issue. The idea moves from solving a commonly agreed problem to looking out of place.

Managing the trends adoption curve

For brands, indifference is a killer. They need interest and engagement to remain attractive and relevant. It’s no surprise that they place so much importance on trends, which offer opportunities to stay fresh and differentiated.

But trends need to be managed through the adoption cycle.

In Genesis, brands must monitor carefully and adopt the only trends that are meaningful to them – and motivating to their customers.

In the Muddled Middle, brands need to find a response to the trend which is authentic to them. They need to state their position loud and clear, communicating why people should prefer their version. And they need to move from talking to doing, developing the realistic offers without which a trend remains an aspiration.

In the Zone of Indifference, an understanding of a trend’s path is needed. Will the trend be absorbed into the category, hollow into inauthenticity, remain a niche, or die off completely? Brands need to be clear about determining what resources, focus and communication should be devoted to the trend.

Because when a trend’s no longer a differentiator, it’s trend’s end.